Countries with existing fleets will inevitably add more. In the USA applications for up to 34 new reactors are expected by 2010 under the strong endorsement of both presidential candidates. China, India, and Russia have announced substantial new reactor construction plans. Japan and Korea have re-affirmed their long-term commitment to nuclear power and will continue ambitious plant building.
Pressing energy imperatives mean new countries will inevitably join the nuclear power industry, and those who abandoned nuclear power will think again. Italy, which abandoned operating nuclear plants in the eighties, has announced it will resume construction within five years. In Germany the pledge to phase out nuclear power by 2021 is under serious questioning for the first time as the wisdom of shutting down 17 reactors producing up to 30% of the nation’s electricity seems increasingly short-sighted.
Countries as diverse as Vietnam, Indonesia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Morocco, Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey are now seriously studying nuclear power.
The potential for a massive expansion of the world’s nuclear power fleet presents particular challenges for the reactor vendors and the fuel supply industry.
Paladin has consistently maintained that while there are adequate uranium resources to underpin the new nuclear power age, the supply-demand balance will be severely stretched for many years to come because uranium production will continue to lag reactor requirements. Restrictions on uranium mining and development in some countries, long licensing lead times, complex tax or regulatory systems, all work together to retard rapid growth in natural uranium output. Buyers, who have become accustomed to a wide range of supply choices, including an abundance of secondary material, may face a tighter market with more competition for limited strategic supply.